Why Donald Trump Achieved a Major Step in the Middle East But Faces Challenges With Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict
Accounts of an impending US-Russia leadership meeting have been overstated, it seems.
Only a few days after Donald Trump announced he planned to confer with Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.
A initial meeting by the both countries' leading diplomats has been cancelled, as well.
"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump informed the press at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I'll see what transpires."
- Trump says he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after plan for Putin talks shelved
- Letdown in Kyiv as President Zelensky leaves White House empty-handed
The on-again, off-again meeting is another development in the president's efforts to mediate an end to hostilities in the Eastern European nation – a subject of renewed focus for the American leader after he arranged a truce and prisoner exchange deal in Gaza.
While making remarks in Egypt recently to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, Trump addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.
"We have to get the Russian situation resolved," he declared.
Nonetheless, the conditions that converged to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for the negotiation team may be difficult to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for almost four years.
Less Leverage
According to Witkoff, the key to achieving a agreement was Israel's move to strike representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a action that angered US partners in the Arab world but provided the president leverage to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
Trump gained from a long record of siding with the Israeli state dating back to his first term, encompassing his decision to move the American embassy to the contested city, to alter America's position on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, more recently, his support for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.
The American leader, in fact, is better regarded among Israelis than Netanyahu – a situation that provided him with unique influence over the nation's head.
Add in the president's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to secure an agreement.
In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, Trump has significantly reduced influence. In recent months, he has vacillated between efforts to pressure the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.
The US leader has warned to impose new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to supply Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that doing so could harm the world's financial stability and intensify the war.
At the same time, the US leader has criticized openly Ukraine's president, halting briefly information exchange with the country and suspending weapon deliveries to the country - only to then retreat in the face of worried European partners who warn a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the whole area.
The president often boasts about his skill to sit down and hammer out deals, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to advance the hostilities any nearer a peaceful end.
The Russian president may in fact be exploiting the US leader's wish for a settlement – and belief in direct negotiations - as a method of manipulating him.
During the summer, Russia's leader agreed to a high-level meeting in Alaska at the time when it appeared likely that the president would sign off on legislative penalties supported by Senate Republicans. That legislation was subsequently put on hold.
Recently, as news emerged that the US administration was considering seriously sending long-range missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the president of Russia phoned the US president who then touted the potential meeting in Hungary.
The following day, Trump welcomed Zelensky at the executive residence, but left empty-handed after a reportedly tense meeting.
Trump insisted that he was not being played by the Russian president.
"As you are aware, I've been played throughout my career by skilled operators, and I emerged successfully," he said.
However the president of Ukraine subsequently made note of the timeline of developments.
"Once the matter of long-range mobility became a little further away for us – for Ukraine – Russia quickly became less engaged in negotiations," he stated.
So, in a matter of days, Trump has bounced from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to Ukraine to planning a meeting in Hungary with Putin and confidentially pressuring the Ukrainian president to surrender all of Donbas – even land Russian forces has been failed to capture.
He has ultimately settled on calling for a ceasefire along present frontlines – a proposal Russia has refused to accept.
During his election campaign previously, the candidate promised that he could end the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has since discarded that pledge, saying that ending the hostilities is proving harder than he anticipated.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his authority – and the difficulty of establishing a framework for peace when both parties desires, or can afford to, cease hostilities.