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Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.

That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate

The pair have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.

Lack of Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Debates range over national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on each side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will win here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."

Appeal for Broader Debate

Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."